Quarterly read on the US spot freight market — capacity, rates, lanes to chase, lanes to skip. This isn't the macro DAT report; this is what we're seeing across our 2,400+ dispatched drivers in real time, plus what we're advising drivers to plan for over the next 90 days.
The headline: 2026 starts firmer than 2025 ended
Q4 2025 finished soft. Capacity overhang from the 2022 truck-buying spree was still working through the system, dry van rates sat 8–12% below the 5-year average, and brokers held all the leverage. Two things have shifted in early Q1:
- Capacity attrition accelerated. Owner-op exits ran ~12% above seasonal norms in Q4, particularly among 2022–2023 vintage authorities (the post-pandemic startup wave) hitting their first major insurance renewal. We're seeing the same in our own pipeline — fewer competitor authorities active in lanes where we tracked them six months ago.
- Demand stabilized. Manufacturing and retail freight pulled forward into Q4 due to tariff uncertainty, but Q1 demand is holding up better than the historical post-holiday slump suggested it would.
Net: the rate floor is rising. We expect dry-van spot rates to climb 5–9% from December lows by end of Q1, with reefer and flatbed up 8–14% by April on seasonal demand.
Equipment-by-equipment outlook
Dry van — improving, slowly
Q1 average so far: $2.10–$2.55/mi spot. Direction: up. The recovery is uneven — long-haul lanes (LA→Atlanta, Chicago→Dallas) are seeing rate strength first; regional dry van remains capacity-heavy through March. We're routing dry van drivers toward 800+ mile runs where the market is firming up first.
Reefer — strongest quarter ahead
Reefer spot averaged $2.40–$3.40/mi in Q1, with significant upside as Florida citrus winds down (March) and California strawberries ramp (April). Salinas → Northeast is the lane to watch — already at $9,000+ per load on premium reefer, and that's before peak season. We expect $10,500+ per load by mid-April. Reefer drivers should be repositioning toward Salinas, Yuma, and McAllen for produce season.
Flatbed — wait for the spring construction surge
Flatbed spot ran $2.80–$3.60 in Q1, sluggish in January-February as winter limits construction sites. April–May brings the steel/lumber/precast surge. Texas oilfield is the wild card — if oil holds above $75/bbl, Permian flatbed will run $0.50+ above national average and pull capacity out of other markets. We're advising Texas-based flatbed drivers to keep options open for Permian work mid-quarter.
Step-deck + RGN — steady premium
Specialized stayed firm through the dry-van softness because capacity in step-deck and RGN doesn't churn the way van/reefer does. Wind-energy projects in IA/KS/NE keeping step-deck busy through the quarter. RGN heavy-haul is project-driven — when a single oversize move pays $25,000, one load makes the month.
Hotshot — strong on direct, soft on board freight
Hotshot rates on direct shipper relationships (oilfield, expedited industrial) are holding. Hotshot loads on the public load boards are competing with too much capacity and rates have softened. Drivers without direct shippers are taking 8–12% rate cuts off Q3 levels. Our hotshot drivers running on direct partner freight are still seeing $2.50–$3.50/mi consistently.
Lanes to chase this quarter
| Lane | Equipment | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Salinas → Philadelphia / Atlanta | Reefer | Produce ramp Apr-on. $9k+ loads in early peak. |
| Laredo → Chicago | Dry van | Cross-border manufacturing demand consistent. |
| Permian → Midwest oilfield states | Flatbed / Hotshot | Drilling activity holding above 2024 floor. |
| LA → Dallas | Dry van | Long-haul recovery lane, $2.40–$2.65 firming. |
| Houston → Atlanta | Dry van + flatbed | Petrochem + retail, year-round backbone. |
| Pacific Northwest paper / lumber | Flatbed / Reefer | WA/OR mill outbound to MX-bound DCs in TX. |
Lanes to skip (or hedge)
| Lane | Why |
|---|---|
| CA → AZ/NV (return from coast) | Empty miles + soft inbound CA. Run a round-trip plan or skip. |
| Northeast → Midwest dry van | Capacity overhang lingers. Rates down 6–10% from Q3. |
| Florida → Northeast (off-citrus) | Inbound to FL is fine, outbound is soft until Atlantic produce restarts. |
| Generic regional dry van under 400 mi | Margins are too thin to absorb the deadhead risk. |
What we're telling our drivers
- Reposition toward produce-friendly origins by mid-March. The reefer drivers who are in Salinas the day rates pop earn a different living than the ones who get there a week late.
- Lock detention in writing on every rate con. Q1 receivers are slower than Q3-Q4 (lighter staffing, scheduling backlogs). Detention recovery is real money this quarter.
- Don't chase below breakeven on dry van. The temptation is to take soft rates to keep moving. Cheap loads get you stuck in cheap lanes. Skip a load and reposition to a firmer market — math runs better.
- Cargo insurance — verify $250k limits. Higher-value freight is moving on the spot market and brokers are checking. $100k cargo limits are now disqualifying on a growing number of loads.
Risks to the outlook
- Diesel price spike. Fuel surcharges lag spot pump prices by 2–3 weeks; if diesel jumps $0.30/gal, owner-ops absorb the gap.
- Tariff escalation. Cross-border (Laredo, El Paso, Detroit) volume is sensitive. Sustained tariff increases could pull 6–10% out of border-crossing lane volume by April.
- Insurance market hardening. Liability + cargo renewals coming in 8–14% higher than 2025 across most carriers. Doesn't move spot rates but compresses owner-op margins quietly.
- Brokerage M&A churn. A few mid-tier brokers are visibly under stress. If one fails mid-quarter, expect a wave of payment disputes and fraud-style attempts to clean out unpaid carrier balances.
Bottom line for Q1
Better than Q4 2025 was. Worse than what 2022 felt like. Drivers who get aggressive on lane selection, lock accessorials, and resist racing to the bottom on rate will outperform the field. Drivers who take whatever shows up on the load board will lose money in soft regional lanes.
If you'd rather not spend the quarter watching markets, that's what dispatch is for — we're already running this analysis on every load we book. Apply if you want our team driving your lane selection in Q1. If you'd rather DIY, plug your numbers into the profitability simulator before saying yes to anything off the board.
Next quarterly outlook: end of March. We'll grade this one against what actually happened.